Haku
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The scarring effects of deep contractions
(03.10.2022)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2022
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2022
We find that deep contractions have highly persistent scarring effects, depressing the level of GDP at least a decade hence. Drawing on a panel of 24 advanced and emerging economies from 1970 to the present, we show that ...
Bond convenience curves and funding costs
(28.09.2022)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2022
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2022
A convenience yield represents a difference between yield on a safe bond and yield on a synthetic safe bond, constructed by combining a risky bond with a CDS contract. We explain the shapes of eurozone sovereign convenience ...
What should the inflation target be? Views from 600 economists
(09.05.2022)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2022
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2022
Growing like Germany : Local public debt, local banks, low private investment
(22.08.2022)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2022
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2022
Over 2010-2016, municipal debt in Germany crowded out private investment worth 1 percent of GDP. Forced to lend to municipalities by their statutes, local public banks compensated for declining municipal-debt yields by ...
Inflationary household uncertainty shocks
(14.02.2022)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2022
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2022
I construct a novel measure of household uncertainty based on survey data for European countries. I show that household uncertainty shocks do not universally behave like negative demand shocks. Notably, household uncertainty ...
Covid-19 pandemic, state aid and firm productivity
(14.01.2022)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2022
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2022
We study the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on productivity by matching firm performance outcomes with corresponding firm-level information on government support. Our cross-country evidence for five EU countries ...
When uncertainty decouples expected and unexpected losses
(26.01.2022)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2022
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2022
A parsimonious extension of a well-known portfolio credit-risk model allows us to study a salient stylized fact – abrupt switches between high- and low-loss phases– from a risk-management perspective. As uncertainty about ...
Belief polarization and Covid-19
(20.09.2022)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2022
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2022
We document a remarkable increase in economic belief polarization - disagreement - regarding the future state of the economy across Europe during the Covid-19 pandemic. We find evidence suggesting that belief polarization ...
Monetary policy and inequality in a small open economy
(20.01.2022)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2022
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2022
We study the impact of monetary policy on income and wealth distributions in a small open economy. To do so, we use household-level registry and survey data from Finland, a small member of a monetary union. This setup ...
Banking market deregulation and mortality inequality
(13.12.2022)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2022
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2022
This paper shows that local banking market conditions affect mortality rates in the United States. Exploiting the staggered relaxation of branching restrictions in the 1990s across states, we find that banking deregulation ...