Haku
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Kiss me deadly: From Finnish great depression to great recession
(16.10.2014)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 24/2014
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 24/2014
We investigate the causes of the Finnish Great Depression, 1990-1993. We find that the collapse of the overheated financial and banking sectors starting in 1989 was the trigger of the economic crisis. Foreign shocks, which ...
Volatility transfers between cycles: A theory of why the "great moderation" was more mirage than moderation
(15.10.2014)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 23/2014
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 23/2014
In this paper we use a New Keynesian model to explain why volatility transfer from high frequency to low frequency cycles can and did occur during the period commonly referred to as the "great moderation". The model suggests ...
Targeting nominal GDP or prices: : Guidance and expectation dynamics
(15.01.2014)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2014
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2014
We examine global dynamics under infinite-horizon learning in New Keynesian models where monetary policy practices either price level or nominal GDP targeting and compare these regimes to inflation targeting. These ...
Abnormal real operations, real earnings management, and subsequent crashes in stock prices
(12.08.2014)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2014
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2014
We study the impact of firms' abnormal business operations on their future crash risk in stock prices. Computed based on real earnings management (REM) models, firms' deviation in real operations from industry norms (DRO) ...
Do private signals of a bank s creditworthiness predict the bank s CDS price? : Evidence from the Eurosystem's overnight loan rates
(25.02.2014)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2014
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2014
We investigate the relationship between the daily average interbank overnight borrowing rate (AOR) and the credit default swap price (CDS) of 60 banks using the Eurosystem's proprietary data from mid-2008 to mid-2013. We ...
Analysis of forecast errors in micro-level survey data
(24.02.2014)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2014
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2014
This paper studies forecasts errors at the micro level using two alternative survey data sets. The main focus is on inflation and real GDP growth forecasts in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. For comparison, ...
Information acquisition and learning from prices over the business cycle
(04.02.2014)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2014
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2014
We study firms' incentives to acquire costly information in booms and recessions to understand the role of endogenous information in explaining business cycles. We find that when the economy has been in a recession in the ...
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder: : The effect of corporate tax avoidance on the cost of bank loans
(14.01.2014)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2014
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2014
We find that firms with greater tax avoidance incur higher spreads when obtaining bank loans. This finding is robust in a battery of sensitivity analyses and in two quasi-experimental settings including the implementation ...
Ending over-lending : Assessing systemic risk with debt to cash flow
(03.04.2014)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2014
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2014
This paper operationalizes early theoretical contributions of Hyman Minsky and applies these in the context of economic sectors and nations. Following the view of boom-bust asset cycles, depicted by the endogenous build-up ...
Bankers' compensation: : Sprint swimming in short bonus pools?
(13.01.2014)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2014
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2014
The global financial crisis of 2007-2008 has given rise to new regulatory initiatives to put restrictions on the size and term of bankers' pay. We revisit the question whether these regulations are justified, both theoretically ...