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Expectations, stagnation and fiscal policy
(11.08.2016)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 25/2016
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 25/2016
Stagnation as the new norm and fiscal policy are examined in a New Keynesian model with adaptive learning determining expectations. We impose inflation and consumption lower bounds, which can be relevant when agents are ...
Devaluation expectations and speculative attacks on the currency
(17.06.1988)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/1988
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/1988
In this paper balance-of-payments crises are studied in a framework in which investors do not know the threshol~ level of foreign reserves, the attainment of which implies that the central bank abandons its fixed exchange ...
Rational expectations in a macromodel : Some comparative analyses with Finnish data
(14.06.1988)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/1988
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/1988
This paper reports some policy experiments carried out with the QMED model of the Bank of Finland. The main issue in these experiments is the role of expectations. Thus, we compare a static expectations version with two ...
International capital flows in Finland 1975-1990: The role of expectations
(31.01.1992)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/1992
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/1992
Financial markets in Finland have undergone important structural changes over the 1980's. Most important have been the emergence of a wellfunctioning short-term money markets and the relaxation of most of the foreign ...
Informaation vaikutus rahoitusmarkkinoiden toimintaan ja keskuspankkipolitiikan tehokkuuteen : katsaus kirjallisuuteen
(17.04.1989)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/1989
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/1989
Tämä raportti on katsaus kirjallisuuteen, jossa on tutkittu informaation roolia rahoitusmarkkinoilla markkinaosapuolien päätöksenteon ja odotusten muodostuksen, kilpailun sekä markkinoiden tehokkuuden näkökulmasta. Lisäksi ...
Formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times : Can ECB manage inflation expectations of professional forecasters?
(28.06.2017)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2017
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2017
This paper studies the formation of inflation expectations in the euro area. We first analyse the forecast accuracy of ECB inflation projections relative to private sector forecasts. Then, using the ECB Survey of Professional ...
Controlling inflation with switching monetary and fiscal policies: expectations, fiscal guidance and timid regime changes
(05.05.2017)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2017
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2017
Inflation depends on both monetary and fiscal policies and on how agents believe that these policies will evolve in the future. Can monetary policy control inflation, when both monetary and fiscal policies are allowed to ...
How informative are aggregated inflation expectations? Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
(24.05.2016)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2016
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2016
This study examines aggregated short- and long-term inflation expectations in the unbalanced panel of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. The focus of the study is on heterogeneity of expectations and changing panel ...
Inflationary household uncertainty shocks
(14.02.2022)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2022
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2022
I construct a novel measure of household uncertainty based on survey data for European countries. I show that household uncertainty shocks do not universally behave like negative demand shocks. Notably, household uncertainty ...
Determinacy and E-stability with interest rate rules at the zero lower bound
(15.11.2021)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2021
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2021
We evaluate and compare alternative monetary policy rules, namely average inflation targeting, price level targeting, and traditional inflation targeting rules, in a standard New Keynesian model that features recurring, ...