Haku
Viitteet 11-20 / 32
Forward guidance with unanchored expectations
(31.08.2021)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2021
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2021
We study zero interest-rate policy in response to a large negative demand shock when long-run expectations can fall over time. Because falling expectations make monetary policy less effective by raising real interest rates, ...
When uncertainty decouples expected and unexpected losses
(26.01.2022)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2022
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2022
A parsimonious extension of a well-known portfolio credit-risk model allows us to study a salient stylized fact – abrupt switches between high- and low-loss phases– from a risk-management perspective. As uncertainty about ...
Euro Area Business Confidence and Covid-19
(15.03.2021)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2021
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2021
I study the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on business confidence in 11 Euro area countries and its consequent impact on economic activity. To obtain causal effects, I instrument business confidence with domestic household ...
Forecasting expected and unexpected losses
(21.12.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2020
Extending a standard credit-risk model illustrates that a single factor can drive both expected losses and the extent to which they may be exceeded in extreme scenarios, ie “unexpected losses.” This leads us to develop a ...
Effective Policy Communication : Targets versus Instruments
(10.11.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 17/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 17/2020
Communication targeting households and firms has become a stand-alone policy tool of many central banks. But which forms of communication, if any, can reach ordinary people and manage their economic expectations effectively? ...
Assessing reliability of aggregated inflation views in the European Commission consumer survey
(05.07.2019)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2019
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2019
Using a novel approach based on micro-level survey responses, we assess the reliability of aggregated inflation expectations estimates in the European Commission Consumer Survey. We identify the share of consumers, whose ...
The role of expectations in the inflation process in the euro area
(01.03.2005)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2005
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2005
This paper analyses the role of inflation expectations in the euro area. On one hand, the question is how inflation expectations affect both inflation and output,and, on the other hand, how inflation expectations reflect ...
Analysis of aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB SPF survey
(28.11.2014)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2014
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2014
This paper examines aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB SPF). We analyse possible impacts of changing panel composition on short and long term point forecasts and ...
Effects of monetary policy decisions on professional forecasters’ expectations and expectations uncertainty
(20.11.2018)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 24/2018
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 24/2018
In this paper, we examine how professional forecasters’ expectations and expectation uncertainty have reacted to the ECB’s interest rate decisions and non-conventional monetary policy measures during the period 1999-2017. ...
The Finnish rational expectations QMED model : estimation, dynamic properties and policy results
(03.07.1989)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 23/1989
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 23/1989
This paper reports some policy experiments carried out with the QMED model of the Bank of Finland. These experiments illustrate the dynamic and long-run properties of this model. Thus, it is investigated how different ...