Haku
Viitteet 1-10 / 12
Weaker global economic activity one of the key risks
(27.01.2017)
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2016
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2016
Exports will finally begin to grow in response to export demand, with net exports gradually beginning to support growth alongside domestic demand. However, one of the key risks to the forecast is a weaker-than-forecast ...
The equity risk premium and the low frequency of the term spread
(03.04.2018)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2018
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2018
We extract cycles in the term spread (TMS) and study their role for predicting the equity risk premium (ERP) using linear models. The low frequency component of the TMS is a strong and robust out-of-sample ERP predictor. ...
Forecasting the equity risk premium with frequency-decomposed predictors
(03.01.2017)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2017
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2017
We show that the out-of-sample forecast of the equity risk premium can be signi ficantly improved by taking into account the frequency-domain relationship between the equity risk premium and several potential predictors. ...
Venäjän talous ja tuonti supistuvat
(21.03.2016)
Euro & talous 1/2016
Euro & talous 1/2016
Venäjää kohdanneiden vientihintasokkien takia Suomen Pankki ennustaa maan BKT:n supistuvan 3 % vuonna 2016. Ennuste pohjautuu oletukseen, että öljyn hinta tynnyriltä on runsaat 40 dollaria eli 60 % alempi kuin vuonna 2014. ...
Maailmantalouden ennuste : Maailmantaloudessa käynnissä noususuhdanne
(28.09.2017)
Euro & talous 4/2017
Euro & talous 4/2017
Maailmantalous kasvaa vuonna 2017 laaja-alaisesti ja ripeästi. Suomen Pankki ennustaa maailmantalouden kasvun voimistuvan tänä vuonna 3,5 prosenttiin ja pysyvän selvästi yli 3 prosentin vauhdissa myös vuosina 2018–2019. ...
Uncertainty in global economy has increased
(02.10.2015)
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 4/2015
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 4/2015
Uncertainty about the condition of the global economy increased in August–September. Concerns relate particularly to China, whose decelerating growth has unnerved the markets. In the Bank of Finland forecast, global growth ...
Forecast risks predominantly on the downside
(18.12.2015)
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2015
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2015
Growth in corporate investment and exports is expected to be reflected in slowly improving output in the immediate years ahead. Nevertheless, owing to increased uncertainties in the global economy, there is a possibility ...
Forecast risks
(18.05.2015)
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 1/2015
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 1/2015
There is increased uncertainty surrounding the growth and inflation forecasts, yet this time upside risks are also present. On one hand, low oil prices and long-term interest rates could boost global economic growth more ...
Forecast for the global economy : Upswing in the global economy
(28.09.2017)
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 4/2017
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 4/2017
Global economic growth is broadly based and brisk in 2017. The Bank of Finland foresees global growth strengthening to 3.5% in 2017 and continuing at well over 3% throughout 2018–2019. World trade is experiencing a surge. ...
Ennusteessa riskejä molempiin suuntiin
(25.03.2015)
Euro & talous 1/2015
Euro & talous 1/2015
Kasvu- ja inflaatioennusteiden epävarmuus on aiempaa suurempi, mutta nyt on myös ennustettua nopeamman kehityksen riskejä. Öljyn alhainen hinta ja pitkien korkojen mataluus voivat kiihdyttää maailmantalouden kasvua arvioitua ...