Weaker global economic activity one of the key risks

Abstract

Exports will finally begin to grow in response to export demand, with net exports gradually beginning to support growth alongside domestic demand. However, one of the key risks to the forecast is a weaker-than-forecast performance in the international economy. Global trade growth is muted relative to global GDP growth, and economic growth in the emerging economies may sag by more than anticipated. Hence developments in the global economy are exceptionally uncertain.