Forecast risks

There is increased uncertainty surrounding the growth and inflation forecasts, yet this time upside risks are also present. On one hand, low oil prices and long-term interest rates could boost global economic growth more than estimated. In addition, currency depreciation in the EU22 and Japan could result in higher-than-forecast growth and inflation. On the other hand, protracted low inflation together with downward wage and price rigidities could be a drag on growth, especially in the EU22. Geopolitical risks continue to weigh on the outlook.