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Should one follow movements in the oil price or in money supply? Forecasting quarterly GDP growth in Russia with higher-frequency indicators
(30.11.2017)
BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2017
BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2017
GDP forecasters face tough choices over which leading indicators to follow and which forecasting models to use. To help resolve these issues, we examine a range of monthly indicators to forecast quarterly GDP growth in a ...
Should we care? : The economic effects of financial sanctions on the Russian economy
(29.07.2019)
BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2019
BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2019
We employ a Bayesian VAR model to estimate the economic effects on the Russian economy from Western financial sanctions imposed in 2014. Sanctions caused a decrease in the amount of out-standing Russian corporate external ...
Win-Win? Assessing the global impact of the Chinese economy
(12.02.2020)
BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2020
BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2020
We study the global impact of the Chinese economy based on a novel indirect approach where the spillover effect is quantified from a forecast error model under relatively favorable identifying conditions. Findings from the ...