Win-Win? Assessing the global impact of the Chinese economy
Herrala, Risto; Orlandi, Fabrice (12.02.2020)
Numero
4/2020Julkaisija
Bank of Finland
2020
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-202002131059Tiivistelmä
We study the global impact of the Chinese economy based on a novel indirect approach where the spillover effect is quantified from a forecast error model under relatively favorable identifying conditions. Findings from the real-time World Economic Outlook data over the period 2004 - 2015 indicate that an increase in economic growth in China had a negative impact on most other economies one to two years ahead. The estimations furthermore uncover evidence at the global level that spillover propagated by influencing prices, including global commodity prices, which tend to increase in reaction to accelerating economic growth in China.
Sisällysluettelo
Abstract .. 4
I Introduction .. 5
II The empirical approach .. 7
A The estimable equation .. 7
B Finite sample properties .. 10
III Empirical analysis .. 12
A The data .. 12
B Estimation results .. 14
C Robustness tests .. 16
D The spillover channels .. 19
IV Discussion and concluding remarks .. 22
References .. 23
I Introduction .. 5
II The empirical approach .. 7
A The estimable equation .. 7
B Finite sample properties .. 10
III Empirical analysis .. 12
A The data .. 12
B Estimation results .. 14
C Robustness tests .. 16
D The spillover channels .. 19
IV Discussion and concluding remarks .. 22
References .. 23
Julkaisuhuomautus
Published in Asia and the Global Economy, Volume 1, Issue 1, January 2021 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aglobe.2021.100006