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Government size and economic growth : some evidence from a market price approach
(13.06.1990)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/1990
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/1990
This paper presents a simple model of aggregate demand in current market prices, in which public sector employment affects aggregate (and private) demand via the total output, the lump-sum taxes and the valuation of public ...
Intermediation in a directed search model
(26.10.2018)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/2018
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/2018
We study the ability of competitive coordination service platforms (such as auction sites and real estate agents) to facilitate trade in a directed search model where buyers have unit demands and each seller only has one ...
Risky debt, bad bank and government
(30.11.1993)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/1993
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/1993
The purpose of this paper is to put forward a valuation framework for interest rate sensitive claims. We concentrate on secured loans. The value of the secured loan depends upon the coupon rate, the maturity, the term ...
Are fiscal multipliers estimated with proxy-SVARs robust?
(13.07.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2020
How large are government spending and tax multipliers? The fiscal proxy-SVAR literature provides heterogeneous estimates, depending on which proxies - fiscal or non-fiscal - are used to identify fiscal shocks. We reconcile ...
Forecasting expected and unexpected losses
(21.12.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2020
Extending a standard credit-risk model illustrates that a single factor can drive both expected losses and the extent to which they may be exceeded in extreme scenarios, ie “unexpected losses.” This leads us to develop a ...
Predicting relative forecasting performance : An empirical investigation
(08.11.2018)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 23/2018
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 23/2018
The relative performance of forecasting models changes over time. This empirical observation raises two questions: is the relative performance itself predictable? If so, can it be exploited to improve forecast accuracy? ...
Paradise lost? A brief history of DSGE macroeconomics
(07.11.2018)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2018
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2018
Since the Global Financial Crisis, academic economists and policymakers have had to deal with uncomfortable questions about the quality of their models and the state of macroeconomics as a profession. This note offers a ...
The power of forward guidance and the fiscal theory of the price level
(29.10.2018)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2018
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2018
Standard New Keynesian models predict implausibly large and favorable responses of inflation and output to expansionary forward guidance on interest rates. We find that the introduction of permanent or recurring active ...
The Finnish rational expectations QMED model : estimation, dynamic properties and policy results
(03.07.1989)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 23/1989
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 23/1989
This paper reports some policy experiments carried out with the QMED model of the Bank of Finland. These experiments illustrate the dynamic and long-run properties of this model. Thus, it is investigated how different ...
Aggregate versus industry-specific sources of economic growth and business cycle fluctuations
(22.05.1989)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/1989
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/1989
This paper evaluates the power of aggregate and sector-specific disturbances ta output growth in the Finnish econc:Jrqy using armual data on the growth of value added in 31 industries over the period 1961-87. The unifonn ...