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Forecasting expected and unexpected losses
(21.12.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2020
Extending a standard credit-risk model illustrates that a single factor can drive both expected losses and the extent to which they may be exceeded in extreme scenarios, ie “unexpected losses.” This leads us to develop a ...
Frequency-domain information for active portfolio management
(09.01.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2020
We assess the benefits of using frequency-domain information for active portfolio management. To do so, we forecast the bond risk premium and equity risk premium using a methodology that isolates frequencies (of the ...
Monetary policy and stock market valuation
(18.09.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/2020
This paper estimates the effect of monetary policy on the term structure of stock market risk premia. Stock market risk premia are solved using analysts’ dividend forecasts and dividend future prices. Although risk-free ...