Haku
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Measuring the effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy in the euro area
(29.05.2018)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2018
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2018
I estimate the effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy in the euro area by using a factor-augmented vector autoregression.I complement the standard monetary policy analysis using the short rate with ...
How informative are aggregated inflation expectations? Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
(24.05.2016)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2016
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2016
This study examines aggregated short- and long-term inflation expectations in the unbalanced panel of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. The focus of the study is on heterogeneity of expectations and changing panel ...
Inflationary household uncertainty shocks
(14.02.2022)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2022
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2022
I construct a novel measure of household uncertainty based on survey data for European countries. I show that household uncertainty shocks do not universally behave like negative demand shocks. Notably, household uncertainty ...
The role of expectations in the inflation process in the euro area
(01.03.2005)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2005
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2005
This paper analyses the role of inflation expectations in the euro area. On one hand, the question is how inflation expectations affect both inflation and output,and, on the other hand, how inflation expectations reflect ...
Endogenous TFP, business cycle persistence and the productivity slowdown
(18.09.2019)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2019
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2019
This paper analyses the procyclicality of euro area total factor productivity and its role in business cycle amplification by estimating a medium-scale DSGE model with endogenous productivity mechanism on euro area data. ...
Responsiveness of consumers' medium-term inflation expectations : evidence from a new euro area survey
(29.06.2021)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2021
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2021
Using the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey, this paper investigates revisions of medium-term inflation expectations. We provide robust evidence that consumers adjust medium-term inflation views in response to changes in ...
What does “below, but close to, two percent” mean? Assessing the ECB’s reaction function with real time data
(05.10.2017)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2017
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2017
We estimate the ECB’s monetary policy reaction function by using real time Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projection data, which are presented to the ECB’s Governing Council when it assesses the monetary policy stance ...
Asymmetric effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy when rates are low
(15.03.2023)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2023
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2023
We study asymmetric inflation effects of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy in the euro area during the period of low nominal interest rates. We find that rate cuts are inflationary also during low interest ...