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Forecasting inflation with the New Keynesian Phillips curve : Frequency matters
(21.04.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2020
We show that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) outperforms standard benchmarks in forecasting U.S. inflation once frequency-domain information is taken into account. We do so by decomposing the time series (of inflation ...
Time-frequency forecast of the equity premium
(27.04.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2020
Any time series can be decomposed into cyclical components fluctuating at different frequencies. Accordingly, in this paper we propose a method to forecast the stock market's equity premium which exploits the frequency ...
The bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation projections: a State dependent analysis
(29.04.2021)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2021
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2021
We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, ...
Forecasting expected and unexpected losses
(21.12.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2020
Extending a standard credit-risk model illustrates that a single factor can drive both expected losses and the extent to which they may be exceeded in extreme scenarios, ie “unexpected losses.” This leads us to develop a ...
Frequency-domain information for active portfolio management
(09.01.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2020
We assess the benefits of using frequency-domain information for active portfolio management. To do so, we forecast the bond risk premium and equity risk premium using a methodology that isolates frequencies (of the ...
Inflation dynamics and forecast : frequency matters
(08.06.2021)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2021
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2021
Policymakers and researchers see inflation characterized by cyclical fluctuations driven by changes in resource utilization and temporary shocks, around a trend influenced by inflation expectations. We study the in-sample ...
Bonds, Currencies and Expectational Errors
(11.10.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2020
We propose a model in which sticky expectations concerning short-term interest rates generate joint predictability patterns in bond and currency markets. Using our calibrated model, we quantify the effect of this channel ...