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Interim forecast : Energy crisis will shrivel growth in Finnish economy
(21.09.2022)
Bank of Finland Bulletin. Analysis
Bank of Finland Bulletin. Analysis
The economy in Finland is weakening after a strong start to the year. The energy crisis and rising inflation have increased the risk of a recession, and the economy is expected to contract slightly in 2023. The faltering ...
Voidaanko pankkikriisejä ennustaa?
(02.11.2022)
Euro & talous. Analyysi
Euro & talous. Analyysi
Suomessa uudistettiin vuonna 2022 makrovakauspolitiikkaa ohjaavia riskimittareita, jotka varoittavat pankkikriisin todennäköisyyden kasvusta. Mittareilla arvioidaan rahoitussyklin vaihetta ja havainnoidaan merkkejä syklin ...
Euroalueen palkkapaineet kasvussa?
(04.11.2022)
Euro & talous. Blogi
Euro & talous. Blogi
Pitkään jatkunut matalan inflaation kausi on nopeasti kääntynyt tilanteeksi, jossa inflaatio on kiihtynyt ja kuluttajien ostovoima on heikentynyt. Euroalueen palkkamittarit ovat tuoreimpien tietojen mukaan osoittaneet ...
The bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation projections: a State dependent analysis
(29.04.2021)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2021
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2021
We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, ...
The information content in the offshore Renminbi foreign-exchange option market : Analytics and implied USD/CNH densities
(23.10.2017)
BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2017
BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2017
In line with the deepening of the derivative foreign-exchange market in Hong Kong, we recover risk-neutral probability densities for future US dollar/offshore renminbi exchange rates as implied by exchange rate option ...
Forecasting expected and unexpected losses
(21.12.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2020
Extending a standard credit-risk model illustrates that a single factor can drive both expected losses and the extent to which they may be exceeded in extreme scenarios, ie “unexpected losses.” This leads us to develop a ...
Analysis of aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB SPF survey
(28.11.2014)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2014
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2014
This paper examines aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB SPF). We analyse possible impacts of changing panel composition on short and long term point forecasts and ...
Should we care? : The economic effects of financial sanctions on the Russian economy
(29.07.2019)
BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2019
BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2019
We employ a Bayesian VAR model to estimate the economic effects on the Russian economy from Western financial sanctions imposed in 2014. Sanctions caused a decrease in the amount of out-standing Russian corporate external ...
Could climate change affect government expenditures? Early evidence from the Russian regions
(22.09.2015)
BOFIT Discussion Papers 27/2015
BOFIT Discussion Papers 27/2015
This paper explores the implications of climate change for government expenditures. Using a rich sub-national dataset for Russia covering 1995–2009, we estimate the impacts of changes in climatic conditions through short-term ...
Predicting relative forecasting performance : An empirical investigation
(08.11.2018)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 23/2018
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 23/2018
The relative performance of forecasting models changes over time. This empirical observation raises two questions: is the relative performance itself predictable? If so, can it be exploited to improve forecast accuracy? ...