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Weaker global economic activity one of the key risks
(27.01.2017)
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2016
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2016
Exports will finally begin to grow in response to export demand, with net exports gradually beginning to support growth alongside domestic demand. However, one of the key risks to the forecast is a weaker-than-forecast ...
Growth potential and public finances need further strengthening
(18.12.2017)
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2017
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2017
The current news on the Finnish economy is positive, and the outlook has improved. Economic growth has continued and is now more broadly based than before. Exports and corporate investment are both growing, in addition to ...
Assessment of public finances in December 2016
(27.01.2017)
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2016
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2016
Finland's fiscal situation is challenging. The general government deficit is still high, and public debt is on an upward trend. Attainment of more balanced public finances is hampered not only by high unemployment-related ...
Political changes increase uncertainty surrounding global economic outlook
(27.01.2017)
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2016
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2016
The global economy is envisaged to grow at a pace of well over 3% in 2017–2019, i.e. slightly faster than in 2016. World trade growth will accelerate during the forecast period, but will remain slow relative to GDP, as in ...
Formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times : Can ECB manage inflation expectations of professional forecasters?
(28.06.2017)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2017
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2017
This paper studies the formation of inflation expectations in the euro area. We first analyse the forecast accuracy of ECB inflation projections relative to private sector forecasts. Then, using the ECB Survey of Professional ...
Forecasting the equity risk premium with frequency-decomposed predictors
(03.01.2017)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2017
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2017
We show that the out-of-sample forecast of the equity risk premium can be signi ficantly improved by taking into account the frequency-domain relationship between the equity risk premium and several potential predictors. ...
The information content in the offshore Renminbi foreign-exchange option market : Analytics and implied USD/CNH densities
(23.10.2017)
BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2017
BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2017
In line with the deepening of the derivative foreign-exchange market in Hong Kong, we recover risk-neutral probability densities for future US dollar/offshore renminbi exchange rates as implied by exchange rate option ...
The real effects of overconfidence and fundamental uncertainty shocks
(22.12.2017)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 37/2017
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 37/2017
This study provides estimates of the real effects of macro-uncertainty de-
composed into fundamental and overconfidence bias components. Crucially,
overconfidence biases lower ex-ante measures of uncertainty, while ...
The Impact of Climate Change on Regional Government Expenditures : Evidence from Russia
(05.05.2017)
Environmental and Resource Economics May 2017
Environmental and Resource Economics May 2017
This paper explores an almost untouched topic in the fast-growing climate econometrics literature—the implications of climate change for government expenditures. Using a rich sub-national dataset for Russia covering ...
Ennuste vuosille 2017–2019
(16.03.2017)
Euro & talous. Analyysi
Euro & talous. Analyysi