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What does "below, but close to, two per cent" mean? Assessing the ECB's reaction function with real time data
(01.06.2021)
International Journal of Central Banking 2 ; June
International Journal of Central Banking 2 ; June
Using unique real-time quarterly macroeconomic projections of the Eurosystem/ECB staff, we estimate competing specifications of the ECB's monetary policy reaction function. We consider specifications which include inflation ...
The Power of Forward Guidance and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level
(01.12.2021)
International Journal of Central Banking 5 ; 2021
International Journal of Central Banking 5 ; 2021
Standard models predict implausible responses to forward-guidance announcements when interest rates are pegged (the "forward-guidance puzzle"). This paper develops conditions for regime-switching models to exhibit a ...