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Anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area : recent evidence based on survey data
(15.11.2016)
European Journal of Political Economy January
European Journal of Political Economy January
This article analyses the anchoring of inflation expectations of professional forecasters and consumers in the euro area. We study anchoring, defined as the central bank's ability to manage expectations, by paying special ...
Walk on the Wild Side : Temporarily Unstable Paths and Multiplicative Sunspots
(15.05.2019)
American Economic Review 5 ; May
American Economic Review 5 ; May
We propose a generalization of the rational expectations framework to allow for temporarily unstable paths. Our approach introduces multiplicative sunspot shocks and it yields drifting parameters and stochastic volatility. ...
The pass-through to consumer prices in CIS economies : The role of exchange rates, commodities and other common factors
(18.04.2018)
Research in International Business and Finance April
Research in International Business and Finance April
This empirical study considers the pass-through of key nominal exchange rates and commodity prices to consumer prices in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), taking into account the effect of idiosyncratic and ...
Cognitive Abilities and Inflation Expectations
(04.01.2019)
AEA Papers and Proceedings May
AEA Papers and Proceedings May
Cognitive abilities help explain the large cross-sectional variation in inflation expectations at the household level. But which type of cognitive abilities are important? We find that not only quantitative abilities but ...
Predicting Relative Forecasting Performance : an Empirical Investigation
(15.10.2019)
International Journal of Forecasting 4 ; October-December
International Journal of Forecasting 4 ; October-December
The relative performances of forecasting models change over time. This empirical observation raises two questions. First, is the relative performance itself predictable? Second, if so, can it be exploited in order to improve ...
On the formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times: The case of the euro area
(22.01.2018)
Economic Modelling June
Economic Modelling June
Studying formation of inflation expectations in the euro area we propose a novel method, integrating rational, adaptive and sticky-information models. We find that in recent turbulent times, formation of inflation expectations ...