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Should one follow movements in the oil price or in money supply? Forecasting quarterly GDP growth in Russia with higher-frequency indicators
(30.11.2017)
BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2017
BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2017
GDP forecasters face tough choices over which leading indicators to follow and which forecasting models to use. To help resolve these issues, we examine a range of monthly indicators to forecast quarterly GDP growth in a ...
Crony banking and local growth in China
(12.05.2017)
BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2017
BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2017
The rise of city commercial banks (CCBs) in Chinese cities provides a unique opportunity to study the finance and growth nexus at the city level. Given the notorious inefficiency of China's “Big Four” state banks, policymakers ...
One-child policy in China : A unified growth analysis
(29.12.2017)
BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2017
BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2017
This paper examines the effects of China's One Child Policy (OCP) in a stylized unified growth model where demographic change plays a central role. Introducing a population constraint into Galor and Weil (2000) model, our ...