Haku
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Forecasting inflation with the New Keynesian Phillips curve : Frequency matters
(21.04.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2020
We show that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) outperforms standard benchmarks in forecasting U.S. inflation once frequency-domain information is taken into account. We do so by decomposing the time series (of inflation ...
Reading between the lines : Using text analysis to estimate the loss function of the ECB
(06.07.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2020
We apply textual analysis to extract the tone (sentiment) from the introductory statements to the ECB’s press conferences regarding economic outlook. By combining this information with Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic ...
Inflationary household uncertainty shocks
(24.04.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2020
I construct a novel measure of household uncertainty based on survey data for European countries. I show that household uncertainty shocks are not universally like negative demand shocks. Notably, household uncertainty ...