Haku
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What does “below, but close to, two percent” mean? Assessing the ECB’s reaction function with real time data
(05.10.2017)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2017
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2017
We estimate the ECB’s monetary policy reaction function by using real time Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projection data, which are presented to the ECB’s Governing Council when it assesses the monetary policy stance ...
Inflation dynamics and forecast : frequency matters
(08.06.2021)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2021
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2021
Policymakers and researchers see inflation characterized by cyclical fluctuations driven by changes in resource utilization and temporary shocks, around a trend influenced by inflation expectations. We study the in-sample ...
Demographic aging and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
(26.10.2023)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/2023
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/2023
I document a statistical link between old-age dependency ratios and average markups. I propose that a mechanism whereby households develop deep habits in consumption as they age could explain this feature of the data. I ...
Price stability and debt sustainability under endogenous trend growth
(17.01.2024)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2024
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2024
This paper studies price stability and debt sustainability when the real rate exceeds trend growth (r > g) in a New Keynesian model with endogenous technology growth through R&D. Under debt-stabilizing (“passive”) fiscal ...