Haku
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The equity risk premium and the low frequency of the term spread
(03.04.2018)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2018
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2018
We extract cycles in the term spread (TMS) and study their role for predicting the equity risk premium (ERP) using linear models. The low frequency component of the TMS is a strong and robust out-of-sample ERP predictor. ...
Conditional risk and predictability of Finnish stock returns
(28.10.1992)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 31/1992
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 31/1992
This paper studies the driving forces of predictable variation in Finnish stock returns. The dynamics of Ferson and Harvey's (1991) methodology are extended and applied within the Sharpe-Lintner CAPM. We find that market ...
Forecasting the equity risk premium with frequency-decomposed predictors
(03.01.2017)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2017
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2017
We show that the out-of-sample forecast of the equity risk premium can be signi ficantly improved by taking into account the frequency-domain relationship between the equity risk premium and several potential predictors. ...
Forecasting expected and unexpected losses
(21.12.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2020
Extending a standard credit-risk model illustrates that a single factor can drive both expected losses and the extent to which they may be exceeded in extreme scenarios, ie “unexpected losses.” This leads us to develop a ...
Frequency-domain information for active portfolio management
(09.01.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2020
We assess the benefits of using frequency-domain information for active portfolio management. To do so, we forecast the bond risk premium and equity risk premium using a methodology that isolates frequencies (of the ...