Haku
Viitteet 1-10 / 18
Forecasting inflation with the New Keynesian Phillips curve : Frequency matters
(21.04.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2020
We show that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) outperforms standard benchmarks in forecasting U.S. inflation once frequency-domain information is taken into account. We do so by decomposing the time series (of inflation ...
What should the inflation target be? Views from 600 economists
(09.05.2022)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2022
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2022
The bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation projections: a State dependent analysis
(29.04.2021)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2021
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2021
We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, ...
Revisiting intertemporal elasticity of substitution in a sticky price model
(09.06.2021)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2021
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2021
Macroeconomic models typically assume additively separable preferences where consumption enters the utility function in a logarithmic form. This restriction implies that consumption growth is highly sensitive to movements ...
Inflationary household uncertainty shocks
(14.02.2022)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2022
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2022
I construct a novel measure of household uncertainty based on survey data for European countries. I show that household uncertainty shocks do not universally behave like negative demand shocks. Notably, household uncertainty ...
On robustness of average inflation targeting
(21.04.2021)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2021
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2021
This paper considers the performance of average inflation targeting (AIT) policy in a New Keynesian model with adaptive learning agents. Our analysis raises concerns regarding robustness of AIT when agents have imperfect ...
Determinacy and E-stability with interest rate rules at the zero lower bound
(15.11.2021)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2021
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2021
We evaluate and compare alternative monetary policy rules, namely average inflation targeting, price level targeting, and traditional inflation targeting rules, in a standard New Keynesian model that features recurring, ...
Identifying money and inflation expectation shocks on real oil prices
(15.06.2023)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2023
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2023
The paper adds money supply and inflation expectations shocks to a well-known three-variable structural model that identifies oil price shocks through fundamentals affecting the oil market. Impulse responses show the ...
Reading between the lines : Using text analysis to estimate the loss function of the ECB
(06.07.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2020
We apply textual analysis to extract the tone (sentiment) from the introductory statements to the ECB’s press conferences regarding economic outlook. By combining this information with Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic ...
Inflationary household uncertainty shocks
(24.04.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2020
I construct a novel measure of household uncertainty based on survey data for European countries. I show that household uncertainty shocks are not universally like negative demand shocks. Notably, household uncertainty ...