Haku
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Assessing U.S. aggregate fluctuations across time and frequencies
(20.02.2019)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2019
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2019
We study the behavior of key macroeconomic variables in the time and frequency domain. For this purpose, we decompose U.S. time series into various frequency components. This allows us to identify a set of stylized facts: ...
Extreme events and optimal monetary policy
(06.02.2018)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2018
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2018
This paper studies the implication of extreme shocks for monetary policy. The analysis is based on a small-scale New Keynesian model with sticky prices and wages where shocks are drawn from asymmetric Generalized Extreme ...
Predicting relative forecasting performance : An empirical investigation
(08.11.2018)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 23/2018
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 23/2018
The relative performance of forecasting models changes over time. This empirical observation raises two questions: is the relative performance itself predictable? If so, can it be exploited to improve forecast accuracy? ...
The power of forward guidance and the fiscal theory of the price level
(29.10.2018)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2018
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2018
Standard New Keynesian models predict implausibly large and favorable responses of inflation and output to expansionary forward guidance on interest rates. We find that the introduction of permanent or recurring active ...