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Analysing euro area inflation outlook with the Phillips curve
(08.09.2021)
BoF Economics Review 5/2021
BoF Economics Review 5/2021
This paper presents the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) -based framework for analysing euro area inflation outlook. Our NKPC specification, that relies on market- and surveybased inflation expectations, explains well ...
Output gaps and cyclical indicators : Finnish evidence
(01.10.2021)
BoF Economics Review 6/2021
BoF Economics Review 6/2021
The output gap is a commonly used tool to assess the state of the business cycle, and as such, a key input for policy makers. In this article, we employ principal components analysis (PCA) to derive an estimate of the ...
Quantiles of growth : household debt and growth vulnerabilities in Finland
(27.05.2021)
BoF Economics Review 2/2021
BoF Economics Review 2/2021
We analyze the relationship of the distribution of future GDP growth and accumulation of household debt in Finnish macroeconomic data from 1980 to 2019. We find clear evidence that exuberant accumulation of household debt ...
Economic effects of a debt-to-income constraint in Finland : Evidence from Aino 3.0 model
(28.04.2021)
BoF Economics Review 1/2021
BoF Economics Review 1/2021
We analyze the economic effects of a debt-to-income constraint for the Finnish economy. Our benchmark is a DSGE model which is designed to capture the most prominent features of the Finnish economy and is calibrated using ...
Measuring counterparty risk in FMIs
(15.12.2021)
BoF Economics Review 9/2021
BoF Economics Review 9/2021
This paper extends traditional payment system simulation analysis to counterparty liquidity risk exposures. The used stress test scenario corresponds to the counterparty stress scenario applied in the BCBS standard “Monitoring ...
Competition and regulation in the Finnish ATM industry
(14.10.2021)
BoF Economics Review 8/2021
BoF Economics Review 8/2021
Declining ATM numbers pose a challenge for competition policy and financial regulatory authorities. In this report we review the Finnish experience of regulating the competition in the ATM industry. To analyze the Finnish ...
Instant payments as a new normal : Case study of liquidity impacts for the Finnish market
(12.10.2021)
BoF Economics Review 7/2021
BoF Economics Review 7/2021
The amount of central bank money, or liquidity, needed to settle payments, depends on the way the settlement is organized. It is largest when payments are settled individually on gross basis and smallest with settlement ...
Bank of Finland's long-run forecast framework with human capital
(16.12.2021)
BoF Economics Review 10/2021
BoF Economics Review 10/2021
Population ageing constitutes a central challenge to Finland. Understanding the Finnish economy’s likely future trajectory and the key sources of growth is important for the design of policies to counteract these adverse ...
Could corporate credit losses turn out higher than expected?
(18.08.2021)
BoF Economics Review 3/2021
BoF Economics Review 3/2021
While corporate credit losses have been low since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, their future evolution is quite uncertain. Using a forecasting model with a solid track record, we find that the baseline scenario ...
The effects of the ECB’s pandemic-related monetary policy measures
(01.09.2021)
BoF Economics Review 4/2021
BoF Economics Review 4/2021
We assess the macroeconomic impact of pandemic-related monetary policy measures of the ECB. Conditioning on counterfactual interest rate paths that would have materialised in the absence of the policies, the macroeconomic ...