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Output gaps and cyclical indicators : Finnish evidence
(01.10.2021)
BoF Economics Review 6/2021
BoF Economics Review 6/2021
The output gap is a commonly used tool to assess the state of the business cycle, and as such, a key input for policy makers. In this article, we employ principal components analysis (PCA) to derive an estimate of the ...
Probit based time series models in recession forecasting : A survey with an empirical illustration for Finland
(11.08.2020)
BoF Economics Review 7/2020
BoF Economics Review 7/2020
This article surveys both earlier and recent research on recession forecasting with probit based time series models. Most studies use either a static probit model or its extensions in order to estimate the recession ...