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Viitteet 1-10 / 141
Forecasting inflation with the New Keynesian Phillips curve : Frequency matters
(21.04.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2020
We show that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) outperforms standard benchmarks in forecasting U.S. inflation once frequency-domain information is taken into account. We do so by decomposing the time series (of inflation ...
Time-frequency forecast of the equity premium
(27.04.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2020
Any time series can be decomposed into cyclical components fluctuating at different frequencies. Accordingly, in this paper we propose a method to forecast the stock market's equity premium which exploits the frequency ...
Väliennuste : Talouskasvu tyrehtyy energiakriisiin
(15.09.2022)
Euro & talous. Analyysi
Euro & talous. Analyysi
Talouden suhdanne heikkenee Suomessa vahvan alkuvuoden jälkeen. Energiakriisi ja inflaation kiihtyminen ovat kasvattaneet taantuman uhkaa, ja talouden arvioidaan supistuvan lievästi ensi vuonna. Suhdanteen heikkeneminen ...
Interim forecast : Energy crisis will shrivel growth in Finnish economy
(21.09.2022)
Bank of Finland Bulletin. Analysis
Bank of Finland Bulletin. Analysis
The economy in Finland is weakening after a strong start to the year. The energy crisis and rising inflation have increased the risk of a recession, and the economy is expected to contract slightly in 2023. The faltering ...
Voidaanko pankkikriisejä ennustaa?
(02.11.2022)
Euro & talous. Analyysi
Euro & talous. Analyysi
Suomessa uudistettiin vuonna 2022 makrovakauspolitiikkaa ohjaavia riskimittareita, jotka varoittavat pankkikriisin todennäköisyyden kasvusta. Mittareilla arvioidaan rahoitussyklin vaihetta ja havainnoidaan merkkejä syklin ...
Euroalueen palkkapaineet kasvussa?
(04.11.2022)
Euro & talous. Blogi
Euro & talous. Blogi
Pitkään jatkunut matalan inflaation kausi on nopeasti kääntynyt tilanteeksi, jossa inflaatio on kiihtynyt ja kuluttajien ostovoima on heikentynyt. Euroalueen palkkamittarit ovat tuoreimpien tietojen mukaan osoittaneet ...
The bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation projections: a State dependent analysis
(29.04.2021)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2021
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2021
We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, ...
Forecasting expected and unexpected losses
(21.12.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2020
Extending a standard credit-risk model illustrates that a single factor can drive both expected losses and the extent to which they may be exceeded in extreme scenarios, ie “unexpected losses.” This leads us to develop a ...
Frequency-domain information for active portfolio management
(09.01.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2020
We assess the benefits of using frequency-domain information for active portfolio management. To do so, we forecast the bond risk premium and equity risk premium using a methodology that isolates frequencies (of the ...
Forecast for the Finnish economy : Economy growing in the shadow of the virus
(02.02.2022)
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2021
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2021
The Finnish economy has made a quick recovery from the steep downturn caused by the COVID-19 crisis. Although the outlook remains overshadowed by the pandemic, Finland’s economy is forecast to grow by 3.5% in 2021 and by ...