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Nowcasting Finnish GDP growth using financial variables : a MIDAS approach
(13.05.2020)
BoF Economics Review 4/2020
BoF Economics Review 4/2020
We analyse the performance of financial market variables in nowcasting Finnish quarterly GDP growth. Especially, we assess if prediction accuracy is affected by the sampling frequency of the financial variables. Therefore, ...
Banking crisis prediction with differenced relative credit
(06.06.2019)
BoF Economics Review 4/2019
BoF Economics Review 4/2019
Indicators based on the ratio of credit to GDP have been found to be highly useful predictors of banking crises. We study the difference in this ratio as an early warning indicator. We test a large number of different ...
Bank of Finland's long-run forecast framework with human capital
(16.12.2021)
BoF Economics Review 10/2021
BoF Economics Review 10/2021
Population ageing constitutes a central challenge to Finland. Understanding the Finnish economy’s likely future trajectory and the key sources of growth is important for the design of policies to counteract these adverse ...