Haku
Viitteet 1-10 / 19
On the long-run calibration of the credit-to-GDP gap as a banking crisis predictor
(22.02.2019)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2019
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2019
The trend deviation of the Credit-to-GDP ratio (“Basel gap”) is a widely used early warning indicator of banking crises. It is calculated with the one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter using an extremely large value of the ...
Should we care? : The economic effects of financial sanctions on the Russian economy
(29.07.2019)
BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2019
BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2019
We employ a Bayesian VAR model to estimate the economic effects on the Russian economy from Western financial sanctions imposed in 2014. Sanctions caused a decrease in the amount of out-standing Russian corporate external ...
Predicting systemic financial crises with recurrent neural networks
(27.08.2019)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2019
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2019
We consider predicting systemic financial crises one to five years ahead using recurrent neural networks. The prediction performance is evaluated with the Jorda-Schularick-Taylor dataset, which includes the crisis dates ...
Helppolukuinen yhteenveto : Korkeasuhdanne on ohi
(17.12.2019)
Euro & talous 5/2019
Euro & talous 5/2019
Talouskasvu on hidastunut euroalueella ja Suomen muilla tärkeillä vientimarkkinoilla. Kansainvälisen talouden heikentyneen kehityksen vuoksi Suomen talouskasvu hidastuu ensi vuonna tilapäisesti alle 1 prosenttiin. Euroalueen ...
Kestävyysvaje aiempaa arviota suurempi
(17.12.2019)
Euro & talous 5/2019
Euro & talous 5/2019
Suomen Pankin arvion mukaan Suomen julkisen talouden kestävyysvaje on 4,7 % suhteessa BKT:hen. Kyseessä on painelaskelma, jonka tulos kuvaa julkisen velan BKT-suhteen pitkällä aikavälillä vakauttavaa julkisen talouden ...
Ennustetaulukot : Ennuste vuosille 2019–2022 (joulukuu 2019)
(17.12.2019)
Euro & talous 5/2019
Euro & talous 5/2019
Suomen talouden ennuste vuosille 2019–2022 joulukuussa 2019.
Predicting Relative Forecasting Performance : an Empirical Investigation
(15.10.2019)
International Journal of Forecasting 4 ; October-December
International Journal of Forecasting 4 ; October-December
The relative performances of forecasting models change over time. This empirical observation raises two questions. First, is the relative performance itself predictable? Second, if so, can it be exploited in order to improve ...
Bank of Finland forecast: Slowing growth in the shadow of global uncertainties
(03.07.2019)
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2019
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2019
Finland’s economic growth will slow in the forecast period to close to its potential rate. GDP will grow 1.6% in 2019 and 1.5% in 2020. Thereafter, the pace of growth will ease to 1.3% in 2021.
Most recent statistical data point to faster-than-expected moderation of economic growth
(03.07.2019)
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2019
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2019
Economist robot currently forecasts a marked slowdown in growth. The forecast has weakened substantially during the spring with the release of new statistical data.
Bank of Finland Bulletin: Bank of Finland articles on the economy 5/2018
(10.01.2019)
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2018
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2018