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A model for predicting Finnish household loan stocks
(20.06.2022)
BoF Economics Review 4/2022
BoF Economics Review 4/2022
We propose a new Bayesian VAR model for forecasting household loan stocks in Finland. The model is designed to work as a satellite model of a larger DSGE model for the Finnish economy, the Aino 2.0 model. The forecasts ...
Quantiles of growth : household debt and growth vulnerabilities in Finland
(27.05.2021)
BoF Economics Review 2/2021
BoF Economics Review 2/2021
We analyze the relationship of the distribution of future GDP growth and accumulation of household debt in Finnish macroeconomic data from 1980 to 2019. We find clear evidence that exuberant accumulation of household debt ...
European household and business expectations during COVID-19 : Towards a v-shaped recovery in confidence?
(29.07.2020)
BoF Economics Review 6/2020
BoF Economics Review 6/2020
Confidence dropped universally across countries and sectors during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. Latest survey data suggest that confidence is on track for a v-shaped recovery. The swift implementation of ...
Household debt, liquidity constraints and the interest rate elasticity of private consumption
(25.04.2023)
BoF Economics Review 2/2023
BoF Economics Review 2/2023
We study whether the level of household indebtedness is related to the interest rate elasticity of private consumption. Looking at Finnish aggregate data, we find no robust evidence of increased interest rate elasticity ...