From shallow recession to moderate growth

Abstract

The Finnish economy will contract by 0.4% in 2023 as inflation, tighter monetary policy and weak export demand weigh on growth across a broad front. Inflation is nevertheless falling this year, and this is already improving household purchasing power. As a consequence, economic growth will pick up in 2024, albeit to a modest 0.9%. The rise in interest rates will dampen growth in investment and private consumption in the immediate years ahead. In 2025, growth in the economy will gather pace, reaching 1.5%.