Consumed in China : Rebalancing China’s demand and Chinese imports
Simola, Heli (14.03.2023)
Numero
5/2023Julkaisija
Bank of Finland
2023
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe2023031431511Tiivistelmä
The share of private consumption has long been small in the Chinese GDP. The share started to increase in the past decade, but the trend reversed with the covid-19 pandemic. Now as the Chinese economy reopens and recovers from covid restrictions, the share of consumption could return to a growing trend. This resumption of a longer-term trend could have important implications for global trade. Our simulations, which are based on recent international input-output data, suggest that the current shift in China’s demand structure is likely to increase import demand for sectors such as the food industry, agriculture, textiles, and travel services. Sectors facing a demand slowdown include base metals, non-metallic minerals, and machinery and equipment.
Sisällysluettelo
Abstract 3
1. Introduction 4
2. Private consumption’s share of Chinese GDP set to increase 4
3. China’s demand structure shift in the 2010s 6
4. Simulation with international input-output data 8
4.1 Global implications 8
4.2 Implications for the euro area 9
5. Concluding remarks 10
References 11
Appendix A. Description of data and methodology 12
1. Introduction 4
2. Private consumption’s share of Chinese GDP set to increase 4
3. China’s demand structure shift in the 2010s 6
4. Simulation with international input-output data 8
4.1 Global implications 8
4.2 Implications for the euro area 9
5. Concluding remarks 10
References 11
Appendix A. Description of data and methodology 12