Interim forecast for the Finnish economy, September 2020 : Recession followed by slow recovery

Abstract

According to the Bank of Finland’s assessment, Finnish GDP will contract by 4.7% in 2020 and grow at an annual rate of 2–3% in 2021–2022. Even though the recession appears to be shallower than feared in the spring, it is still deep, and recovery will be slow. Employment threatens to weaken for a protracted period, and the global recession is overshadowing the outlook for exports. Uncertainty stemming from the coronavirus pandemic will remain high, both in the global economy and in Finland. The risks of weaker-than-projected developments are still considerable and relate, in particular, to failure in preventing the spread of the virus.