Slow productivity growth hinders export growth

Abstract

The Finnish economy started to grow at the end of 2015. This was preceded by an exceptionally long and deep recession, during which the economy contracted for several consecutive years and jobs were lost. Economic growth has continued for three years and the Finnish economy is currently booming. However, growth has passed its cyclical peak. The Bank of Finland's Aino forecasting model demonstrates that both external and domestic factors have influenced the cyclical upswing and, in particular, export growth of recent years.