Why has world trade slowed?

Abstract

World trade grew for decades considerably faster than global GDP. In recent years, the growth of international trade has slowed to the level of the GDP growth rate. Is the most hectic phase of globalisation already history? It would seem that, in the latter part of the first post-millennium decade, it was for the most part permanent structural factors that took centre stage, while transitory cyclical factors played only a minor role. Forecasts suggest world trade growth relative to global GDP is not likely to gain significant momentum in the immediate years ahead.