Russian economy and imports to contract substantially in 2015

Abstract

The Russian economy has begun to contract due to the fall in the price of oil. GDP will contract by over 4% in 2015. The uncertainty will cause a decline in investment, and consumption will be cut particularly by rapid inflation. Imports will be reduced by the contracting economy, a weak rouble and declining export income. In 2016–2017, the price of oil will rise and the contraction in the economy and imports will flatten out. Forecast risks relating to investment and imports, in particular, are high.