Bank of Finland. Bulletin. Economic outlook
(14.01.2015)
Volyymi
88Numero
5Julkaisija
Bank of Finland
2014
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-201501161006Sisällysluettelo
Editorial 3
Economic outlook 5
I Forecast and risk assessments 5
Return to growth will be sluggish 5
Box 1. What do confidence indicators tell us about the
short-term growth outlook for the Finnish economy? 8
Weak earnings development and concerns over the future
subdue consumer demand 10
Individual projects sustain investment growth 10
Exports to lag behind pace of growth in export markets 11
Labour market trend will continue to be muted 12
Inflation will slow, but less than the euro area average 14
Current account will remain in deficit 14
General government balance will not be restored 15
Risk assessment and economic policy challenges 17
Economic policy challenges 18
Box 2. Alternative scenario: Lower oil price boosts
economic growth 19
Box 3. Forecast assumptions 21
Box 4. Finland’s public finances 23
II Recent developments 28
GDP and eployment 28
Box 5. Corporate profitability declined 30
Prices 32
Box 6. Wages and taxation main factors behind rise in prices 33
Finland – the most expensive country in the euro area 34
Public finances 35
Labour market 37
Box 7. Change in age structure compensates for labour
supply impact of population ageing 38
Financial markets and financial factors 40
Box 8. What factors explain Finland’s double-dip recession? 42
External balance 44
Global economy and Finland’s export markets 45
Commodity prices 46
Exchange and interest rates 47
Box 9. National accounts for the third quarter of 2014 49
Financial stability 51
Finland’s long-term growth outlook has deteriorated
Juha Kilponen – Helvi Kinnunen – Petri Mäki-Fränti 67
Articles and boxes from previous publications 79
Forecast tables T1
Economic outlook 5
I Forecast and risk assessments 5
Return to growth will be sluggish 5
Box 1. What do confidence indicators tell us about the
short-term growth outlook for the Finnish economy? 8
Weak earnings development and concerns over the future
subdue consumer demand 10
Individual projects sustain investment growth 10
Exports to lag behind pace of growth in export markets 11
Labour market trend will continue to be muted 12
Inflation will slow, but less than the euro area average 14
Current account will remain in deficit 14
General government balance will not be restored 15
Risk assessment and economic policy challenges 17
Economic policy challenges 18
Box 2. Alternative scenario: Lower oil price boosts
economic growth 19
Box 3. Forecast assumptions 21
Box 4. Finland’s public finances 23
II Recent developments 28
GDP and eployment 28
Box 5. Corporate profitability declined 30
Prices 32
Box 6. Wages and taxation main factors behind rise in prices 33
Finland – the most expensive country in the euro area 34
Public finances 35
Labour market 37
Box 7. Change in age structure compensates for labour
supply impact of population ageing 38
Financial markets and financial factors 40
Box 8. What factors explain Finland’s double-dip recession? 42
External balance 44
Global economy and Finland’s export markets 45
Commodity prices 46
Exchange and interest rates 47
Box 9. National accounts for the third quarter of 2014 49
Financial stability 51
Finland’s long-term growth outlook has deteriorated
Juha Kilponen – Helvi Kinnunen – Petri Mäki-Fränti 67
Articles and boxes from previous publications 79
Forecast tables T1
Julkaisuhuomautus
From the beginning of 2015 the Bank of Finland Bulletin will appear in the form of a new online publication, free of charge.