Long-term growth forecast for the Finnish economy
Kinnunen, Helvi; Mäki-Fränti, Petri; Newby, Elisa; Orjasniemi, Seppo; Railavo, Jukka (15.08.2012)
JulkaisusarjaBank of Finland. Bulletin
JulkaisijaBank of Finland
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite onhttps://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-201408073882
To make the correct economic policy choices one must have a view of the long-term growth prospects for the economy, as these policy choices will have implications for decades ahead. Of the factors that will influence economic growth in the decades ahead, the easiest to anticipate is population ageing, which will depress labour supply and hence reduce the economy's growth potential. In contrast, it is much harder to estimate future trends in productivity. The slower productivity growth since 2008 could be viewed as a temporary phenomenon that will be followed by a return to the earlier trend of rapid productivity growth, but it could also be a more permanent change. In any case, the share of output taken by services, with their slower productivity growth, will grow in the immediate decades ahead as the population ages, which foretells much more sluggish GDP over the next few decades.
ISSN-L 1797-3775 (print) ISSN 1797-3783 (online)