Bank of Finland Bulletin : Economic outlook

Abstract

Preface 3

Bank of Finland forecasts 5

Executive summary 6

Economic outlook 9 Recent developments 9 Box 1. National accounts for the third quarter of 2012 12 Operating environment 13 Non-financial corporations 20 Households 23 Box 2. Precautionary savings push up household savings ratio in a recession 24 GDP and employment 27 Box 3. The link between economic growth and the unemployment rate has changed 30 Public finances 33 Box 4. Finland's public finances 36 External balance 41 Wage and price trends 42 Risk assessment 45 Box 5. Alternative scenario: increased competition in labour and product markets 48 Changes from the previous forecast 53 Financial stability 55

Fiscal sustainability projections for Finland Helvi Kinnunen - Petri Mäki-Fränti - Hannu Viertola 75

Finland's competitiveness and its measurement Lauri Kajanoja 87

Articles and boxes from previous publications 99

Forecast tables T1