Bank of Finland Bulletin : Economic outlook
(29.06.2011)
Numero
3Julkaisija
Bank of Finland
2011
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-201408074442Tiivistelmä
Preface 1
Bank of Finland forecasts 3
Executive summary 4
Recent development 6
Box 1. National accounts for the first quarter of 2011 9
Operating environment 10
Box 2. Recent euro area monetary policy 14
Non-financial corporations 17
Households 19
GDP and employment 21
Box 3. Job-matching in the labour market after the recession 24
Public finances 25
Box 4. Medium-term outlook for public finances 28
Box 5. Central and local government financial assets 30
External balance 32
Box 6. Finland's net international investment position has improved by less than the current account surpluses indicate 33
Price and wage trends 36
Box 7. Inflation higher in Finland than in the euro area 38
Risk assessment 40
Box 8. Alternative scenario: an increase in domestic wage and price pressures 43
Changes from the previous forecast 47
Long-term supply of labour
Helvi Kinnunen and Petri Mäki-Fränti 49
An estimated general equilibrium model for forecasting
Elisa Newby, Jukka Railavo and Antti Ripatti 58
Bank of Finland's forecast errors in 2004-2010
Elisa Newby and Seppo Orjasniemi 67
Articles and boxes from previous publications 75
Forecast tables T1
Bank of Finland forecasts 3
Executive summary 4
Recent development 6
Box 1. National accounts for the first quarter of 2011 9
Operating environment 10
Box 2. Recent euro area monetary policy 14
Non-financial corporations 17
Households 19
GDP and employment 21
Box 3. Job-matching in the labour market after the recession 24
Public finances 25
Box 4. Medium-term outlook for public finances 28
Box 5. Central and local government financial assets 30
External balance 32
Box 6. Finland's net international investment position has improved by less than the current account surpluses indicate 33
Price and wage trends 36
Box 7. Inflation higher in Finland than in the euro area 38
Risk assessment 40
Box 8. Alternative scenario: an increase in domestic wage and price pressures 43
Changes from the previous forecast 47
Long-term supply of labour
Helvi Kinnunen and Petri Mäki-Fränti 49
An estimated general equilibrium model for forecasting
Elisa Newby, Jukka Railavo and Antti Ripatti 58
Bank of Finland's forecast errors in 2004-2010
Elisa Newby and Seppo Orjasniemi 67
Articles and boxes from previous publications 75
Forecast tables T1
Julkaisuhuomautus
ISSN-L 1797-3775 (print) ISSN 1797-3783 (online)