Tracking Chinese CPI inflation in real time

Abstract

With recovery from the global financial crisis in 2009 and 2010, inflation emerged as a major concern for many central banks in emerging Asia. We use data observed at mixed frequencies to estimate the movement of Chinese headline inflation within the framework of a state-space model, and then take the estimated indicator to nowcast Chinese CPI inflation. The importance of forward-looking and high-frequency variables in tracking inflation dynamics is highlighted and the policy implications discussed. Keywords: Nowcasting, CPI inflation cycle, mixed-frequency modelling, dynamic factor model, China. JEL classification: C53, E31, E37