The regime-dependent evolution of credibility : A fresh look at Hong Kong s linked exchange rate system

Abstract

An estimated Markov-switching DSGE modelling framework that allows for parameter shifts across regimes is employed to test the hypothesis of regime-dependent credibility of Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system. The model distinguishes two regimes with respect to the time-series properties of the risk premium. Regime-dependent impulse responses to macroeconomic shocks reveal substantial differences in spreads. These findings contribute to efforts at modelling exchange rate regime credibility as a non-linear process with two distinct regimes. Keywords: Markov-switching DSGE models, exchange rate regime credibility, Hong Kong. JEL-Classification: E32, F41, C51, C52