Business cycle synchronisation in a currency union : Taking stock of the evidence
Campos, Nauro F.; Fidrmuc, Jarko; Korhonen, Iikka (20.09.2017)
JulkaisusarjaBank of Finland Research Discussion Papers
JulkaisijaBank of Finland
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite onhttps://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-201709201608
This paper offers a first systematic evaluation of the evidence on the effects of currency unions on the synchronisation of economic activity. Focusing on Europe, we construct a database of about 3,000 business cycle synchronisation coefficients as well as their design and estimation characteristics. We find that: (1) synchronisation increased from about 0.4 before the introduction of the euro in 1999 to 0.6 afterwards; (2) this increase occurred in both euro and non-euro countries (larger in former); (3) there is evidence of country-specific publication bias; (4) our difference-in-differences estimates suggest the euro accounted for approximately half of the observed increase in synchronisation.
Published in International Review of Financial Analysis 61 ; January ; 2019 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2018.11.012