BOFIT Forecast for China 2013-2015 / 1

Abstract

Chinese GDP grew at nearly 8 % last year. This year China should still manage to grow at about the same pace. However, China's investment-driven growth model, which is heavily dependent on natural resource inputs, appears to have run its course. This implies that future growth will increasingly need to be sustained through consumer demand. Along with changes in the structure of the economy GDP growth will likely slow to around 7 % in 2014 and 2015. Beyond changes in the real economy, liberalisation of China's financial markets will add to uncertainty over our forecast period.