BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2014–2016 / 2
(16.09.2014)
Numero
2/2014Julkaisija
Bank of Finland
2014
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-201411063128Tiivistelmä
Russian economic growth slowed to a crawl in the first half of 2014, even if transient factors supported domestic output and consumption. Our latest, slightly lowered forecast sees no GDP growth this year with the Ukraine crisis continuing to stoke uncertainty that is particularly hard on private investment. Imports will remain at a reduced level. While assuming the oil price does not rise during 2015–2016, the Russian economy should begin to recover gradually as growth in global trade and the world economy picks up.
Even a slow recovery assumes that financial market responses to the instability heightened by the Ukraine crisis are limited and that there is no further escalation and prolongation of sanctions. If so, we also expect a decent recovery in imports in 2016. The conditions for economic growth and development deteriorate, however, as private firms continue to postpone investment and the state stresses spending on defence and national self-sufficiency in production over market reforms and competition. The downside risks to our prognosis are very significant, wide-reaching and heavily driven by the Ukraine crisis and uncertainties in Russia with respect to investment and imports. The recovery could also be brisker than our forecast if the government moves to stimulate the economy through hikes in government spending or credit via the banking system.
Even a slow recovery assumes that financial market responses to the instability heightened by the Ukraine crisis are limited and that there is no further escalation and prolongation of sanctions. If so, we also expect a decent recovery in imports in 2016. The conditions for economic growth and development deteriorate, however, as private firms continue to postpone investment and the state stresses spending on defence and national self-sufficiency in production over market reforms and competition. The downside risks to our prognosis are very significant, wide-reaching and heavily driven by the Ukraine crisis and uncertainties in Russia with respect to investment and imports. The recovery could also be brisker than our forecast if the government moves to stimulate the economy through hikes in government spending or credit via the banking system.
Julkaisuhuomautus
Published also in Finnish by the name BOFIT Venäjä-ennuste.