BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2012-2014 / 2

While the Russian economy enjoyed growth of about 4.5 % per annum in the first half of 2012 and witnessed fairly good growth in imports, our forecast sees GDP growth tapering off in the second half of this year and settling at above 3.5 % p.a. this year and in 2013. Growth will be slightly lower in 2014. Our prognosis of slowing growth is based on an assumption that oil prices will not rise. Import growth will also moderate to around 10 % p.a. this year and around 5 % in 2013 and 2014. The rise in private consumption will slow, but it will still remain brisk. The uncertain outlook for oil and gas exports will subdue growth in the volume of Russian exports. Both international and domestic uncertainty will weigh on growth in fixed investment this year, but investment growth will revive next year.