BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2011-2013

Recovery of the Russian economy from one of the world's most severe recession-induced declines in output slowed down temporarily in autumn 2010 but continued in winter. The forecast envisions (as in core of the late-summer forecast) brisk recovery and growth of the economy and even faster growth of imports. GDP growth is expected to slow gradually from about 5% pa in 2011-2012 to ca 4% in 2013, assuming an oil price of about USD 100 a barrel over the course of the forecast period. GDP growth will be subject to a dampening effect from continuing rapid growth of imports - ca 15% in 2011 and 10% pa in 2012-2013. GDP is expected to match the pre-recession peak level of summer 2008 in the autumn of this year and imports around the end of the year.