BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2010-2012

Following an exceptionally severe recession, the Russian economy has returned to a path of growth. The economy is expected to continue to post high growth rates over the forecast period, in line with the BOFIT forecast of winter 2010, even if the projected growth for the current year has been lowered because of a slower-than-expected recovery. We also look for rapid growth of imports. While the forecast calls for a slight moderation of both economic growth and imports in the course of the forecast period, the economy should continue to post annual growth rates of nearly 5% almost until the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, imports are likely to increase at more than 10% pa. To be sure, the projected growth does not match the robust rates of the protracted pre-recession period of 2000-2008. GDP should climb back to its level of 2008, the year immediately preceding the re-cession, around the middle of next year.