BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2013-2015 / 1
JulkaisusarjaBOFIT Forecast for Russia
JulkaisijaBank of Finland
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite onhttps://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-20140807822
The Russian economy grew 3.4 % last year. Growth slowed considerably in the second half of 2012 with GDP growth dipping below 3% after growing at a 4.5 % pace in the first half. Russian imports grew rapidly until the end of the year, and were up nearly 9 % for 2012 overall. Our forecast sees GDP rising 3.4 % this year and next. Growth will slow in 2015 if, as we expect, the oil price does not rise. Import growth will subside this year and next to around 5 % a year, and then pick up a bit in 2015. Growth in private consumption, though brisk, will be slightly slowing. The volume of Russian exports will increase modestly due to weak development of energy exports. Fixed investment growth should pick up gradually, but investments are still subject to substantial uncertainty both domestically and in international markets.