Did Putin's reforms catapult Russia to durable growth?

Abstract

Establishing connections between economic performance and policies, institutions and exogenous change is difficult under any circumstances.In the case of Russia, where relevant time series are short and structural and institutional change has occurred in the absence of a well-defined model of the economy, it becomes largely - if not entirely - a matter of art and taste.This paper considers the possible impacts of structural reform under President Putin on Russian economic performance.Judging the impact of Putin's reforms on recent Russian economic performance is confounded by the problem of overdetermination.That is, we can identify a number of contributing factors, but cannot say for sure if their absence would have a crucial effect on outcomes.On the other hand, there seem to be no grounds for denying the importance of reforms, even if their short-term impact might primarily be through expectations, a factor notoriously difficult to pinpoint. Further, it is a matter of some delight that, contrary to what is currently all too easily and often argued, Russia's structural reforms continue.Key words: Russia, economic policy, reforms, growth