The revision and realization of investment plans in the finnish manufacturing industries in 1964-1986
Pyyhtiä, Ilmo (01.11.1989)
Numero
43Julkaisija
Suomen Pankki
1989
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-201708161554Sisällysluettelo
I INTRODUCTION 9
I.1 Aims of the Study 9
I.2 Background 11
I.3 General Outlines 17
II INVESTMENT THEORY AND INVESTMENT PLANS OF THE FIRM 20
II.I. Aims of the Chapter 20
II.2 Determination of Investment Plans 22
II.3 Determinants of the Neoclassical Investment Function 33
II.4 Stochastic Shocks and the Timing of Investment Decisions 41
II.5 Inclusion of Demand in the Investment Function 44
II.5.1 The Accelerator Model of Investment 44
II.5.2 Downward-Sloping Demand Curve 46
II.5.3 Constrained Demand 50
II.6 Capital Market Imperfections and Investment Plans 52
II.6.1 Introduction 52
II.6.2 Investment Plans and Credit Rationing 54
II.7 Concluding Remarks 58
III INVESTMENT PLANS AS FORECASTS 61
III.1 Aims of the Chapter 61
III.2 Rationality of Plans 62
III.3 Definitions 64
III.4 Statistical Description 66
III.5 The Unbiasedness of Plans 78
III.6 The Information Content of Plans 96
III.7 Concluding Remarks 103
IV REVISION OF INVESTMENT PLANS 104
IV.1 Aims of the Chapter 104
IV.2 Revision and Realization Functions of Investment Plans 105
IV.3 Information Set 109
IV.4 Condensing the Information Set 117
IV.4.1 Demand Shocks and the Revisions of Plans 117
IV.4.2 The Implementation of Plans and Shocks 119
IV.4.3 Principal Component Analysis and the Information Set 124
IV.5 Estimation Results of the Realization Function 129
IV.5.1 The Basic Model 130
IV.5.2 Sectoral Analysis 139
IV.5.3 Uncertainty 147
IV.6 Estimates of the Adjustment and Innovation Parameters 155
IV.7 Concluding Remarks 158
V APPLICATION OF THE EULER RULE TO INVESTMENT EQUATIONS 159
V.1 Aims of the Chapter 159
V.2 The Euler Equation 160
V.3 Data and Estimation of the Euler Equation 163
V.4 Estimation Results and Testing of the Overidentifying Restrictions 165
V.5 Decision Rules 170
V.6 Estimation Results of the Decision Rule 173
V.7 Concluding Remarks 177
VI SUMMARY OF THE STUDY 178
VI.1 Summary of Empirical Results and Comparison with Earlier Studies 178
VI.2 Conclusions 182
I.1 Aims of the Study 9
I.2 Background 11
I.3 General Outlines 17
II INVESTMENT THEORY AND INVESTMENT PLANS OF THE FIRM 20
II.I. Aims of the Chapter 20
II.2 Determination of Investment Plans 22
II.3 Determinants of the Neoclassical Investment Function 33
II.4 Stochastic Shocks and the Timing of Investment Decisions 41
II.5 Inclusion of Demand in the Investment Function 44
II.5.1 The Accelerator Model of Investment 44
II.5.2 Downward-Sloping Demand Curve 46
II.5.3 Constrained Demand 50
II.6 Capital Market Imperfections and Investment Plans 52
II.6.1 Introduction 52
II.6.2 Investment Plans and Credit Rationing 54
II.7 Concluding Remarks 58
III INVESTMENT PLANS AS FORECASTS 61
III.1 Aims of the Chapter 61
III.2 Rationality of Plans 62
III.3 Definitions 64
III.4 Statistical Description 66
III.5 The Unbiasedness of Plans 78
III.6 The Information Content of Plans 96
III.7 Concluding Remarks 103
IV REVISION OF INVESTMENT PLANS 104
IV.1 Aims of the Chapter 104
IV.2 Revision and Realization Functions of Investment Plans 105
IV.3 Information Set 109
IV.4 Condensing the Information Set 117
IV.4.1 Demand Shocks and the Revisions of Plans 117
IV.4.2 The Implementation of Plans and Shocks 119
IV.4.3 Principal Component Analysis and the Information Set 124
IV.5 Estimation Results of the Realization Function 129
IV.5.1 The Basic Model 130
IV.5.2 Sectoral Analysis 139
IV.5.3 Uncertainty 147
IV.6 Estimates of the Adjustment and Innovation Parameters 155
IV.7 Concluding Remarks 158
V APPLICATION OF THE EULER RULE TO INVESTMENT EQUATIONS 159
V.1 Aims of the Chapter 159
V.2 The Euler Equation 160
V.3 Data and Estimation of the Euler Equation 163
V.4 Estimation Results and Testing of the Overidentifying Restrictions 165
V.5 Decision Rules 170
V.6 Estimation Results of the Decision Rule 173
V.7 Concluding Remarks 177
VI SUMMARY OF THE STUDY 178
VI.1 Summary of Empirical Results and Comparison with Earlier Studies 178
VI.2 Conclusions 182